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Josef Hargrave

Global foresight manager

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Scenario planning

Scenario planning

Understanding change to build resilience for the future

Understanding change to build resilience for the future

Josef Hargrave
Global Foresight Leader
+44 (0) 20 7636 1531

How can we be better prepared for an uncertain future?

Scenarios provide a hypothetical illustration of plausible futures. They help decision makers to frame their strategic thinking, and to test and refine strategic options.

By understanding the broader strategic context, we help our clients prepare for uncertainty and identify areas for competitive advantage. Scenarios enable our clients to understand how key trends interact and what the various pathways into the future may look like. This is used to analyse likely impacts on their organisation to help build a shared understanding of inevitable futures. Our scenario planning work ranges from cities to organisations to individual projects.

City-scale scenarios

We use scenarios to explore the way complex systems will evolve over time and their impact on strategic decisions. Contextual scenarios help our clients to understand future industry or sector changes, and the firm’s needs, support decision-making and strategy development.

Future of infrastructure

The county of Kent and Medway needed to look at future infrastructure needs up to 2050 and how these would relate to transport, access to healthcare, jobs, water, waste, energy and more. Arup Foresight developed contextual scenarios to support policy making with specialist input from Arup experts in different sectors.

Organisation-scale scenarios

We challenge the tendency to favour ‘business as usual’ and use scenarios to help decision-makers frame their strategic thinking. We worked with Southeast Queensland Water to develop a set of scenarios on the future of the water sector. These scenarios were used to engage leadership, staff and stakeholders and identify opportunities for investment.

Project-scale scenarios

Scenarios help us to understand our possible futures and strategic options. For example, we modelled scenarios for a new university in Brisbane to help understand what decisions needed to be taken today to achieve their vision of the future.

2050 Scenarios

What will the world look like in 2050? Explore plausible future scenarios based on the intersection between our planet’s health and societal conditions.

Our expertise

We help organisations understand change, identify opportunities and make decisions that build resilience for the future. Our set of capabilities give you unrivaled support to explore, define and shape the future of the built environment.

Design and innovation

How can we develop new business models and solutions? We help companies explore new opportunities for growth by breaking down visions and goals into clear strategic decision points.

Insights and trends

How can we identify emerging risks and opportunities? Our team scans a global network of sources for new trends, insights, and cutting-edge thinking.

Strategy and visioning

How can we future proof our designs, strategies and solutions? Organisations and large projects need a common vision to ensure that different components and contributors can effectively work towards a common goal.

Talk to the Arup Foresight team about your needs

Contact Josef Hargrave